2021 Aug 14

John Riel Casimero vs. Guillermo Rigondeaux

10 rounds, bantamweights

Casimero vs. Rigondeaux is a fight with much value to exploit. People have been betting like crazy on Casimero and that has changed the odds drastically the last few days. You can now find Rigondeaux at +220 (3.20 decimal odds) which is unbelievable. When the line first came out last week the price on Rigondeaux was +125 (2.25 decimal odds) and we thought there was value already then in that price. The general betting public is looking at Rigondeaux´s age and his last two performances that were less than great and they have seen Casimero score six straight highlight-reel knockouts and they believe Casimero will knock Rigondeaux out. We have to remember first off all, Rigo has never lost at 122 pounds or less. In his last fight against Liborio Solis which started out very close he was still able to make the adjustments and get the win. In an instance in the 7th round he showed a glimpse of his greatness when he almost stopped Liborio Solis who looked out his feet after Rigo hit him with a perfectly timed uppercut out of the blue. It was the kind of shot that only great fighters can throw and land in that way. Yes it is true that Rigo is not in his physical prime anymore and his legs is not what they once were but even functioning at 75% of his best capabilities might be enough to beat his opponents at 118. The danger about Casimero is not his boxing skills although he has improved but it is his big powershots that are very hurtful if they land. He was getting outboxed badly by Zolani Tete in the first two rounds and he suddenly lands a big shot that knocks Tete down. Casimero was supposed to fight Donaire but that fight got cancelled all together because Donaire wanted to have full ped testing prior to the fight and Casimero didn´t accept. Donaire is an ambassador of our sport and he is a clean fighter so he refused to fight him. You have to wonder if you are a clean fighter, why would you not accept testing? Casimero could be a clean fighter but it did look suspicious and he has been hitting very hard as of late so we know this when handicapping the fight and that might be a thing that the oddsmakers have factored in discreetly. One thing about rigondeaux that many fans and insiders are sleeping on is that he can punch also. He actually punches very hard and that is one of the factors that makes his opponents so hesitant to come in on him. Rigondeaux seems to live a healthy lifestyle and he is always in shape. In fact we have never seen him out of shape, EVER.

The value here is without a doubt with Rigondeaux. +220 (3.20 decimal odds) is just too generous to pass up considering this is a 50/50 fight with all variables in consideration. Rigondeaux will be sharp as he knows there is a real threat with Casimero. We see Rigondeaux winning this fight and it is not out of the question that Rigo stops Casimero. The Pick is Guillermo Rigondeaux to win and become the WBO Bantamweight Champion.

The Pick: Guillermo Rigondeaux to win the fight
Odds: +220 (3.20 decimal odds)
Units: 3
Start time: