Otto Wallin (21-1) with 14 knockouts faces Dominic Breazeale (20-2) in the co-main event of Broner-Santiago. Wallin´s claim to fame came in a spirited but ultimately losing effort to Tyson Fury in Sep 2019. He really put in a tremendous effort that night and pushed Fury very hard through the fight but lost a clear decision. In looking closer at Otto Wallin´s record it seems apparent that the best win of his career came in 2018 against fellow Swede Adrian Granat who was highly thought of and very high ranked at the time. It was a close 50/50 fight that Wallin won by decision. Wallin looks to be very good technically and he is defensibly responsible at all times. The areas where he seems to be lacking is in the power department and his physical strength. Even in his stoppage wins , most of the time it is due to him slowly breaking down his opponents rather then knocking them down with one shot. Many times even when he connects cleanly the opponents are able to deal with it. It usually takes several clean blows before he gets the opponent out of there. Dominic Breazeale has tremendous power and he is a very big and strong guy. The problem for Breazeale is his inactivity. He has not had a single fight since he was knocked out in one round against Deontay Wilder and before that he last fought in Dec 2018 so you can say that he has had a total of less than one round in more than 3 years time and that is a major issue. A positive thing for Breazeale is the fact that he is completely rejuvenated. We have never heard him sounding this confident and positive before and this is credit to the great trainer Abel Sanchez. He has been up in Big Bear working extremly hard for this fight and he says that he is in the shape of his life and we believe him. He said that he has ran more in this camp than in all previous camps combined. Otto Wallin is the technically more skilled fighter and he is better defensively but Breazeale is stronger and hits considerably harder. Otto Wallin is a -300 (1.33 decimal odds) favorite with Breazeale being priced at +200 (3.00 decimal odds).We can not in any way, shape or form see Otto Wallin stopping Breazeale because he is not powerful enough and Breazeale´s physical strength will keep Wallin on the back foot for the duration of the fight. Wallin will fight in his defensive manner always cautious of Breazeale´s right hand which Breazeale will have a hard time landing cleanly.
The most likely scenario for this fight is Otto Wallin to compile enough points on the cards to win a decision. He is better technically and he will try to stay away and counter Breazeale from a safe distance. His good defense will ensure that he doesn´t get hit with many clean punches. There is value in Otto Wallin to win by decision but there is also value in Dominic Breazeale to win by decision. There is value in the Breazeale decision because Wallin with his style will most likely be moving much and it will look like Breazeale is the agressor throughout the fight. He will throw a lot of punches and even if they won´t be landing cleanly there is a chance that he will impress the judges with his agression and somehow win a close decision. Wallin´s lack of power might make it look like he isn´t landing with authority. The +800 on Breazeale by dec is very playworthy and a +ev play in our estimation. But our official play will be that the fight "Goes The Distance" for a price of +120 (2.20 decimal odds). That covers us no matter who edges it and it even covers the slim chance of a draw.