The big fight is finally here between Canelo Alvarez (53-1) and Callum Smith (27-0). Canelo has fought a lot of british fighters in his career and he has beaten them all but no one has posed the threat that Callum does going in to this fight. Yes Canelo has beaten another brit called Rocky Fielding who has similar height and reach to Callum Smith but that is all they have in common. Smith is a heck of a lot better than Rocky Fielding in all areas and aspects. Callum Smith was very impressive in the World Boxing Super Series where he recorded victories over George Groves and Erik Skoglund. The only real weakness in Smith is the fact that he is inexperienced in comparison to Canelo who we know for a fact can deal with all kinds of difficulties and styles. Canelo can fight short guys, tall guys, punchers, guys with fast feet, guys with long reaches, guys with a good jab etc. Callum Smith has looked excellent in his career but there are still things that we don’t know about him that will be answered after his fight with Canelo. If he were to win the fight, it would be the biggest victory for a british fighter in quite some time. Canelo is difficult to beat on the scorecards as most readers already know. He has a fan-friendly style with shots that are easy to see and hear for the judges and they seem to always favor his work in close fights with whoever he fights. One thing that was telling at the weigh in is the enormous size advantage that Callum Smith has and both guys looked in good shape. Callum Smith can punch hard but he is not an enormous puncher and we know that Canelo has a chin made of Granite. Furthermore, Canelo has a body that is incredibly strong so it is not likely that Smith will knock him out with a body shot like he has done with many other opponents. So having said that, Smith´s best chance for success seems to utilize his length and reach and catch Canelo with hard shots to discourage him from coming to close. If he can fight perfect like that for 12 rounds he really has a good chance to win. If he gets backed in to the corner and gets forced to stand still with a high guard for any length of time he will get badly hurt and knocked out. It could be that Callum Smith won’t be able to hold Canelo off him and if that happens he will slowly but surely be taken apart. (sign in to view & prediction & pick)
The odds for a Smith Decision is currently at an incredible +1200 (13.00 decimal odds). Part of that has to do with how good Canelo Alvarez is and part of that has to do with the favorable scorecards that he has gotten over the years in his career. It has been close to impossible to beat him on the cards. That might be different tonight because he is no longer in contract with a promoter and he is coming in to this event as a freelancer. We might just get a fair shake, although most likely the close rounds still go in his favor. What we are saying is that if there was ever a time for fair scorecards, it would be this time. Canelo is a phenomenal fighter all around but any man can lose on a given night and the value is there on a Smith Decision win priced at +1200 (13.00 decimal odds). We see this fight being very close on the cards and it could go either way. We are releasing 2 picks for this fight. The first one is the fight to go the distance at +125 (2.25 decimal odds). Then we are adding an additional pick being Callum Smith to beat Canelo by decision because of the great value that is offered.