Errol Spence jr vs. Danny Garcia is a very good match-up. The odds today reflects what we believe that they should be had it not been for Spence jr´s accident. Spence jr being this big of a favorite with so many unknowns takes away from the value. The prices today stands at Spence jr -500 (1.20 decimal odds) and Garcia at +350 (4.50 decimal odds). The Spence from before we would see beating Garcia 9 out of 10 times and we are not saying that there is something wrong with him because we don’t know and he says that everything is fine. What we don’t know about Spence jr. post accident is how well he will respond to hard punches to the head. Sure he has had sparring but sparring guys with large gloves and headgear is not the same thing as getting hit with small 8 oz gloves with no head gear especially if the one doing the hitting has power like Garcia. One thing that Hisham Zaben noticed about Spence jr in the 3 episodes of fight camp is that he seems to be talking slower and more unspecific with no real clearness in his voice. Sometimes that can be signs of cognitive impairment after some kind of trauma. This is just an observation and it could be wrong of course but that is what it looked like. The reality is that probably neither Spence jr nor his team knows how he will react to hard punches that lands clean on the chin or head. How could they know? He has had no fights since the accident and sparring probably wouldn´t show it so there has to be some kind of doubt we believe. Spence jr. is a naturally very gifted fighter and like we said he should beat Danny Garcia most of the times if he is at his best because he is just a better fighter all-round. It does not seem likely that Garcia should win a decision against spence jr. so his most likely chance of winning is to win by stoppage for one or another reason. Spence jr. is most likely to win the fight by decision because Danny Garcia has a chin made of Granite and his defense is better than it looks. (sign in to view our prediction & pick)
There are several ways that Garcia could win by stoppage and here we list them: If he lands his left hook clean he could win right then and there. He could also land a clean punch and hurts Spence jr. and jump at him with a barrage of punches forcing the referee to step in. Garcia could also land a lot of hard punches and hurt Spence jr. enough to force a corner stoppage if something isn´t right with Spence jr. The value is there. Having said all that, the most likely outcome in this fight is Errol Spence jr to win a decision and since the odds are so high on a Garcia ko, we are advising you to hedge the bet with a smaller bet on Danny Garcia by ko/tko at +800. This way we should be completely covered.