2020 Oct 17

Vasiliy Lomachenko vs. Teofimo Lopez

12 rounds, for Lomachenkos WBO and WBA lightweight titles and Lopez IBF lightweight title

The big fight is finally here; Vasiliy Lomachenko vs. Teofimo Lopez. There is so much to say about this fight but we are going to be focused on the betting side of things and discuss matters that can make a difference on the outcome. Lomachenko has a record of 14-1 and has shown over and over again why he should be placed at the very top of pound-for-pound lists, whether you have him at no 1, 2 or 3 can depend on your personal preferences but that’s where he belongs. In his last fight against Campbell we gave Campbell a good chance of giving him a lot of trouble because of his Olympic pedigree and the fact that he was fighting in Campbells back yard. There was value there in picking a Campbell decision as a play because of the tremendous value that was given by the bookmakers. Picking Campbell by decision was priced at +2500 which was ridiculous because he is a very good fighter. As it turned out, he gave Loma a lot of problems in the fight and wounded up losing a decision. Of course Loma was rightfully the favorite but we thought the odds were too wide and we had come to the conclusion that Campbell would be at his very best which he was, but it still wasn´t enough because of how special Loma really is. Now the opponent for Loma is newly crowned World Champion Teofimo Lopez who will present other problems for Loma than Campbell or any other opponent so far have been able to present to Loma. The biggest difference between Teofimo and all other opponents that Loma has faced so far is the power he possesses. Teofimo´s right hand is no joke. If he hits you clean, you are gone. So far Teofimo has been able to showcase that tremendous right hand power that he has but it has to be taken in to consideration the level of opponents he has been able to do it to. Let’s face it; many guys he have been knocking out have been limited or had other flaws making them susceptible to his big power shots. Commey was supposed to be a big test because of the fact that he had a lot of power himself, but no one mentioned his defensive issues and possibly a chin that is less than stellar. This wasn´t the first time Commey was caught flush like that with a right hand thrown at the same time as his own shots. He got hit like that against Robert Easter jr and was almost knocked out in that fight also. That is really the only really tough opponent he has faced. Some of the other guys were good but nowhere near elite and certainly can´t be mentioned in the same breath as Lomachenko. In looking at their shape it is obvious that both guys are in tremendous shape and ready to go. One other thing that stood out to us is the incredible chemistry that Loma and his father share. The respect he has for his father is incredible and he trusts him 100%. This became extra apparent to us as an important factor when we compared the relationship of Teofimo and his father and as he said in his own words that the bond wasn´t as great as before and that they had some major difficulties. If the fight gets rough and it isn´t going Teofimo´s way when we come to the 2nd half, you would have to wonder if he is going to be listening to his father or try his own thing. Currenty Loma is a -400 favorite (1.25 decimal odds) and Teofimo is priced at +300. (sign in to view our prediction & pick)

Teofimo does have tremendous power in his right hand but we do not see him finding the opening to land it flush like he did against Commey. Lomachenko is too experienced and too smart to get caught with it. We know that Loma will be aware and alert of the danger that is at hand so he will not make a mistake like that in the biggest fight of his pro career. What will happen is that Teofimo will keep trying to land his bombs and impose his physicality and he is a strong guy but he will not be effective enough. He will get caught plenty on the way in and out and after the midpoint of the fight Loma will have taken over control completely and this is going to make Teofimo hesitant and cautious. The mental pressure that Loma will be putting on Teofimo as the fight plays out will be very draining and fatiguing and Teofimo will run out of ideas as the fight goes towards the final quarter. We see Lomachenko winning a dominant decision if Teofimo lasts the distance. If he gets too worn down we could envision a Loma stoppage from Rounds 9-12.

The Pick: Vasiliy Lomachenko by Decision
Odds: -110 (1.90 decimal odds)
Units: 10
Start time: 9pm ET / 6pm PT