Jose Zepeda (31-2) is back in the ring against once beaten Kendo Castaneda (17-1) in a 10 round bout that will be contested at a catchweight of 144 pounds. Zepeda last fought almost a year ago in septemeber of 2019 when he put in the best performance of his career and upset Jose Pedraza by a unanimous decision. Pedraza was the favorite going in to that fight but he proved the oddsmakers wrong. We got it right in picking the upset in that fight. So we know what we have in Zepeda. This is a guy that was able to beat Jose Pedraza and before that he has given WBC champion Jose Ramirez as he admitted in his own words: the toughest fight of his career. Zepeda lost a close majority decision to Ramirez and we have now seen just how good Ramirez is, so that performance was very impressive. The opponent Zepeda is facing is 26 year old Texan, Kendo Castenda. He is long and tall for the 140 pound division and he seems willing to fight it through even in fights that doesn´t seem to be going his way, as in his most recent fight against Yomar Alamo where he lost a decision. Alamo of course is a big step down from the elite of the weight class and we know that Castaneda struggled at that level and in fact lost to Alamo. When we handicapped this fight we came to the conclusion that Zepeda should be somewhere around a -1000 favourite in this fight and Castaneda being priced somewehere around +650. The odds has recently been released and the bookies have it much closer than our own line with Zepeda at -333 and Castaneda at +200. In general, the more the discrepancy between the bookies line and our own, the bigger play we will make if the discrepancy is on our side, We always make our own lines for the fights before we read any official odds. (sign in to view our prediction & pick)
Castaneda has never shown anything that would make you believe that he is capable of beating a fighter of Zepeda´s class. Castaneda is the busier, stronger fighter with better punch selection and more power. Considering how big a favorite we consider Zepeda to be, the odds of -333 (1.30 decimal odds) is of very good value. We are making a big play here and the pick is Jose Zepeda to win this fight.