2020 Feb 14

Thomas Mattice vs. Isaac Cruz Gonzalez

10 rounds, lightweights

Thomas Mattice (15-1-1) with 11 knockouts faces hard-hitting Mexican Isaac Cruz Gonzalez (18-1-1) in a 10 round lightweight contest. Mattice is coming of the best win of his career when he upset Michael Dutchover who was previously unbeaten and a big favourite going in. The fight was very close all the way to the stoppage that was caused by a cut on Dutchover and Mattice was awarded the tko victory. Gonzalez is somewhat unknown in the United States and it is difficult to assess his exact level as a fighter due to limited material against quality opposition. What we do know is that he punches hard and is able to knock out lesser guys, but that doesn't say how he will fare against better fighters. When the line first came out on this fight, it was -110 on both fighters (1.90 decimal odds) at BET365. When we handicapped this fight, we made Mattice a sizeable favourite , and the bigger the difference between our line and the bookies, the more value we have and the more we will bet. It was obvious that the line was soft and the sharps of the business have all bet Mattice big and he is now a big favourite with bookies. The odds are currently Mattice -225 and Gonzalez +180 which is a big difference from where they started at.

Mattice looked great at the weigh in and he really looks to be a division above Gonzalez with his size advantage. Even with the large drop in the price they offer on Mattice, it is still the play. The Pick is Thomas Mattice to win for a price of -225 (1.44 decimal odds)

The Pick: Thomas Mattice to win fight
Odds: -225 (1.44 decimal odds)
Units: 10
Start time: 9pm ET / 6pm PT