Canelo Alvarez is taking a big risk in moving up by 2 divisions to take on the WBO light heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev. Canelo has looked very good at super welterweight and middleweight but this really is a big jump to 175. There is a lot of talk that Kovalev can’t take shots to the body but it is exaggerated. It is not like he gets knocked out to the body in every fight. Let’s look at the times he was hurt to the body: First time was against Andre Ward first meeting where he took some body shots but handled it. Second time was the rematch against Ward where he was hurt to the body and perhaps a few shots under the belt. Then we have the fight against Eleider Alvarez where his body held up good but he got caught with hard shots to the head in the 7th and the fight was stopped. It looked like he really hadn’t trained hard for Eleider in that fight. Despite that he was winning the fight up until that moment on all three cards. In the rematch against Eleider Alvarez, he was the underdog and people were saying that he was finished and would get knocked out again. We picked Kovalev to win that fight on points and it payed 6/1 (+600, 7.00 decimal odds). Kovalev won it easily and dominated for the full 12 rounds. In Kovalevs last fight against Anthony Yarde he got tired again and was very hurt to the body in the 7th and 8th round. He managed to get back and knock Yarde out. We have to remember that these guys punches hard. Andre Ward punches much harder than he ever was given credit for and he is physically very strong. Anthony Yarde is not the most technical fighter around but he is strong as an ox and his right hand carries big time power. For Kovalev nowadays there seems to be a time in every fight where he looks very tired and spent and thats when he is the most vulnerable. That time seems to be between rounds 7-9. He was stopped in the 8th against Ward, stopped in the 7th against Eleider Alvarez and hurt badly in the 7th against Yarde. But to Kovalevs credit he now seems more mature and focused than ever, and he now knows that he can be beaten and knocked out which makes him more focused in the fight. His new trainer Buddy McGirt is doing an incredible job with him.
Kovalev will use his lead hand and great footwork as much as he possibly can and keep Canelo on the outside. We believe that he will have a lot of success in the fight with his long jab and straight punches. In the end, the judges will give Canelo all the close rounds and it will lead to him winning a razorthin controversial decision, it might perhaps even be a split-decision because judges usually disagree in fights with controversial decisions. Lets face it: beating Canelo on points is very difficult to say the least. Therefore, the Pick is Canelo Alvarez to win another highly disputed decision with the odds of +110 (2.10 decimal odds)
The Pick: Canelo Alvarez by Decision
Odds: +110 (2.10 decimal odds)
Start time: 10pm ET / 7pm PT