2019 Oct 18

Oleksandr Gvozdyk vs. Artur Beterbiev

12 rounds, WBC/IBF light heavyweight unification

This is a fight between two very good World Champions who are trying to seperate themselves as the no1 player in the division. Artur Beterbiev was the better amateur, no doubt about it. He seems to be very strong mentally and he is very gifted, not to mention the tremendous punching power that he has. This fight in America has been labeled by many as a boxer vs. puncher type of fight with Gvozdyk being the boxer and Beterbiev the puncher. It is not quite that simple. It would seem that way because Beterbiev has stopped all 14 opponents he has faced as a pro. What they are missing is that long before he was known to be a puncher, he was known for being a good boxer. His technique level is very high and if he gets to come in on the inside he is very, very dangerous. Gvozdyk, labeled as the boxer, is indeed a very good boxer but he can also punch. What speaks well for him is that he seems to be performing very well with Teddy Atlas and he seems to still be learning and developing. Gvozdyk is the guy that Top Rank has invested much in, although they both are promoted by Top Rank. It just seems likely that the judges will favor his work if he manages to stay on the outside for the full 12. If Beterbiev on the other hand, makes it to the inside often enough, Gvozdyk is likely to get knocked out. The timing of the fight seems to fit Gvozdyk more than Beterbiev. Gvozdyk is coming of a hard battle with Adonis Stevenson but he did win it and has had time to recover. His confidence level must have gone up enormously from that bout. Beterbiev in his last 2 fights has just started to look more vulnerable. He was knocked down by Callum Johnson with a big left hook: the signature punch of Johnson. He managed to recover but was badly hurt for a little moment but ultimately stopped Johnson.

Teddy Atlas will have Gvozdyk using his jab and staying far away from Beterbiev, not taking any chances at all and not exchanging with Beterbiev, atleast not until Beterbiev shows signs of fatigue. The timing of the fight just seems to be in Gvozdyk´s favor and he is the younger and fresher of the two. If he manages to box around Beterbiev it is likely a long fight so the Over 8.5 Rounds for -110 (1.90 decimal odds) is a good bet. We see Oleksandr Gvozdyk winning a decision which pays +300 (4.00 decimal odds).

The Pick: Over 8.5 Rounds
Odds: -110 (1.90 decimal odds)
Units: 5
Start time: 9pm ET / 6pm PT