2019 Jul 20

Manny Pacquiao vs. Keith Thurman

12 rounds, for Thurman's WBA welterweight title
Manny Pacquiao vs. Keith Thurman is a very interesting match-up indeed. When the first line came out Thurman was posted as a sizeable favourite priced at -200 at some places. A lot has happened since then and the perception among many fans is that Manny Pacquiao will win this fight. Here is why: Pacquiao looked good against an Adrian Broner who wasn’t doing much while Thurman had his worst performance in some years. That has greatly affected how this fight is perceived to go. Their recent performances can be explained in several ways. First Adrian Broner really hasn’t looked good in a long time and he looked like he had given up on winning and was just trying to survive and that made Pacquiao perhaps look better in that fight than he was. Keith Thurman was coming of a long 2 yeat layoff against a very game Josesito Lopez who has in tremendous shape for the fight. Lopez is a very tough fighter that gives his all each and every time and against a Thurman who looked very rusty, Lopez was able to find him with his big shots several times in the fight and there was one occasion in the 7th where it looked like Thurman was in big trouble. To his credit he managed to weather the storm and came back strong. Lately there have been reports on a lot of big money in Las Vegas being put on Pacquiao and this has changed the line substantially. Slowly but surely the line has now landed at Pacquiao being the big favourite at roughly the same price Thurman was before at -190. Thurman is priced at +135 on some places.

We are very clear on what we see in this fight. Pacquiao is wrongfully favored, no doubt about it. Thurman will be much better for this fight than he was against Lopez and he really looked good and ripped at the weigh in. Pacquiao is 40 years old, there is no other way around that no matter how energized people might think he is. He will finally look his age against Thurman who is bigger, stronger and seems to be punching harder with one punch at this time in their careers. We are picking Keith Thurman to win. We recommend playing Keith Thurman with the “draw no bet” option which slightly lowers the odds to +125 which still is very good value but returns the money in case of a draw. If that option is not possible where you place your wagers, you can place a small amount on a draw to cover your original bet. The Pick is Keith Thurman to win.

The Pick: Keith Thurman to win fight